1990巴菲特給股東的信

轉貼自毓毓的窩
這真的是超棒的部落格~人也是超級的屌法

文章作者:巴非特
翻譯者:毓毓
Investor who expect to be ongoing buyer of investments throughout their lifetimes should adopt a similar attitude toward market fluctuation; instead many illogically become euphoric when stock prices rice and unhappy when they fall. They show no such confusion in their reaction of food price: Knowing they are forever going to be buyer of food, they welcome falling prices and deplore prices increase. ( It’s the seller of food who doesn’t like declining prices.) Similarly, at the Buffalo News we would cheer lower prices for newsprint — even though it would mean marking down the value of the large inventory of newsprint we always keep on hand — because we know we are going to perpetually buying the product.

打算長期作多並以此為終身職志的投資者面對股市的波動應該採取同樣的態度，千萬不要因為上漲就欣喜若狂，下跌就鬱鬱寡歡。奇怪的是他們對食物價格就從來都不會搞錯：因為他們知道他們永遠都得買食物吃，因此十分歡迎食物價格下跌，反怒罵價格上漲。（該擔心價格直直落的該是賣家才對）。同樣的，在水牛城新聞我們也喜歡新聞紙的價格能夠低，即便這會使我們得認列大量的庫存折價損失，因為我們知道我們得一直採買這些產品。

Identical reasoning guides our thinking about Berkshire’s investment. We will be buying business — or small parts of business, called stocks — year in, year out as long as I live ( and longer, if Berkshire’s directors attend the seances I have scheduled ). Given these intentions, declining prices for business benefit us, and rising prices hurt us.

同樣的道理套在Berkshire的投資思惟上，我們會一直買進企業（或企業的一部份，也就是股票），在我還活著的期間都將持續地買（如果我死後， Berkshire董事會還願意接受我透過降靈、觀落陰所下的指示，那該期間就會更長）。因此企業價格下跌對我們是有利的，反之上漲的價格則不利。

The most common cause of law prices is pessimism — some times pervasive, some times specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It’s optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.
造成股價下跌的主要原因是悲觀情緒，有時全面性，有時侷限於單一公司或產業。我們喜歡在這樣的環境下經營事業，不是因為我們天生悲觀，而是我們喜歡悲觀創造出來的好價格。對理性投資人來說，樂觀的氣氛才是天敵！

None of this means, however, that a business or stock is an intelligent purchase simply because it is unpopular; a contrarian approach is just as foolish as a follow-the-crowd strategy. What’s required is thinking rather than polling. Unfortunately, Bertrand Russell’s observation about life in general applies with unusual force in the financial world: “Most men would rather die than think. Many do.”
當然以上所述並非指買下不受歡迎的企業或股票就是明智的，純粹反向操作其實跟「跟著群眾跑」的策略一樣愚蠢！真正要緊的思考，而非跟著投票。不幸的是，Bertrand Russell對人性的觀察同樣適用在投資上：「大多數的人就是寧死也不願思考！」

from 1990巴菲特給股東的信